The ups and downs of volcanic unrest: Insights from integrated geodesy and numerical modelling

Part of the Advances in Volcanology book seriesThis is the final version of the chapter. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Volcanic eruptions are often preceded by small changes in the shape of the volcano. Such volcanic deformation may be measured using precise surveying techniques and analysed to better understand volcanic processes. Complicating the matter is the fact that deformation events (e.g., inflation or deflation) may result from magmatic, non-magmatic or mixed/hybrid sources. Using spatial and temporal patterns in volcanic deformation data and mathematical models it is possible to infer the location and strength of the subsurface driving mechanism. This can provide essential information to inform hazard assessment, risk mitigation and eruption forecasting. However, most generic models over-simplify their representation of the crustal conditions in which the deformation source resides. We present work from a selection of studies that employ advanced numerical models to interpret deformation and gravity data. These incorporate crustal heterogeneity, topography, viscoelastic rheology and the influence of temperature, to constrain unrest source parameters at Uturuncu (Bolivia), Cotopaxi (Ecuador), Soufrière Hills (Montserrat), and Teide (Tenerife) volcanoes. Such model complexities are justified by geophysical, geological, and petrological constraints. Results highlight how more realistic crustal mechanical conditions alter the way stress and strain are partitioned in the subsurface. This impacts inferred source locations and magmatic pressures, and demonstrates how generic models may produce misleading interpretations due to their simplified assumptions. Further model results are used to infer quantitative and qualitative estimates of magma supply rate and mechanism, respectively. The simultaneous inclusion of gravity data alongside deformation measurements may additionally allow the magmatic or non-magmatic nature of the source to be characterised. Together, these results highlight how models with more realistic, and geophysically consistent, components can improve our understanding of the mechanical processes affecting volcanic unrest and geodetic eruption precursors, to aid eruption forecasting, hazard assessment and risk mitigation.s Work presented herein has received funding by the European Commission (FP7; Theme: ENV.2011.1.3.3-1; Grant 282759: VUELCO)

Linear, Deterministic, and Order-Invariant Initialization Methods for the K-Means Clustering Algorithm

Over the past five decades, k-means has become the clustering algorithm of choice in many application domains primarily due to its simplicity, time/space efficiency, and invariance to the ordering of the data points. Unfortunately, the algorithm's sensitivity to the initial selection of the cluster centers remains to be its most serious drawback. Numerous initialization methods have been proposed to address this drawback. Many of these methods, however, have time complexity superlinear in the number of data points, which makes them impractical for large data sets. On the other hand, linear methods are often random and/or sensitive to the ordering of the data points. These methods are generally unreliable in that the quality of their results is unpredictable. Therefore, it is common practice to perform multiple runs of such methods and take the output of the run that produces the best results. Such a practice, however, greatly increases the computational requirements of the otherwise highly efficient k-means algorithm. In this chapter, we investigate the empirical performance of six linear, deterministic (non-random), and order-invariant k-means initialization methods on a large and diverse collection of data sets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The results demonstrate that two relatively unknown hierarchical initialization methods due to Su and Dy outperform the remaining four methods with respect to two objective effectiveness criteria. In addition, a recent method due to Erisoglu et al. performs surprisingly poorly.Comment: 21 pages, 2 figures, 5 tables, Partitional Clustering Algorithms (Springer, 2014). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1304.7465, arXiv:1209.196

Fetal hydrops and the Incremental yield of Next-generation sequencing over standard prenatal Diagnostic testing (FIND) study: prospective cohort study and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incremental yield of exome sequencing (ES) over chromosomal microarray analysis (CMA) or karyotyping in prenatally diagnosed non-immune hydrops fetalis (NIHF). METHODS: A prospective cohort study (comprising an extended group of the Prenatal Assessment of Genomes and Exomes (PAGE) study) was performed which included 28 cases of prenatally diagnosed NIHF undergoing trio ES following negative CMA or karyotyping. These cases were combined with data from a systematic review of the literature. MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and ClinicalTrials.gov databases were searched electronically (January 2000 to October 2020) for studies reporting on the incremental yield of ES over CMA or karyotyping in fetuses with prenatally detected NIHF. Inclusion criteria for the systematic review were: (i) at least two cases of NIHF undergoing sequencing; (ii) testing initiated based on prenatal ultrasound-based phenotype; and (iii) negative CMA or karyotyping result. The incremental diagnostic yield of ES was assessed in: (i) all cases of NIHF; (ii) isolated NIHF; (iii) NIHF associated with an additional fetal structural anomaly; and (iv) NIHF according to severity (i.e. two vs three or more cavities affected). RESULTS: In the extended PAGE study cohort, the additional diagnostic yield of ES over CMA or karyotyping was 25.0% (7/28) in all NIHF cases, 21.4% (3/14) in those with isolated NIHF and 28.6% (4/14) in those with non-isolated NIHF. In the meta-analysis, the pooled incremental yield based on 21 studies (306 cases) was 29% (95% CI, 24-34%; P < 0.00001; I2  = 0%) in all NIHF, 21% (95% CI, 13-30%; P < 0.00001; I2  = 0%) in isolated NIHF and 39% (95% CI, 30-49%; P < 0.00001; I2  = 1%) in NIHF associated with an additional fetal structural anomaly. In the latter group, congenital limb contractures were the most prevalent additional structural anomaly associated with a causative pathogenic variant, occurring in 17.3% (19/110) of cases. The incremental yield did not differ significantly according to hydrops severity. The most common genetic disorders identified were RASopathies, occurring in 30.3% (27/89) of cases with a causative pathogenic variant, most frequently due to a PTPN11 variant (44.4%; 12/27). The predominant inheritance pattern in causative pathogenic variants was autosomal dominant in monoallelic disease genes (57.3%; 51/89), with most being de novo (86.3%; 44/51). CONCLUSIONS: Use of prenatal next-generation sequencing in both isolated and non-isolated NIHF should be considered in the development of clinical pathways. Given the wide range of potential syndromic diagnoses and heterogeneity in the prenatal phenotype of NIHF, exome or whole-genome sequencing may prove to be a more appropriate testing approach than a targeted gene panel testing strategy. © 2021 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology

Climate and southern Africa's water-energy-food nexus

In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water-energy-food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and Gross Domestic Product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose; the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool, and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water

The Hubble Constant

I review the current state of determinations of the Hubble constant, which gives the length scale of the Universe by relating the expansion velocity of objects to their distance. There are two broad categories of measurements. The first uses individual astrophysical objects which have some property that allows their intrinsic luminosity or size to be determined, or allows the determination of their distance by geometric means. The second category comprises the use of all-sky cosmic microwave background, or correlations between large samples of galaxies, to determine information about the geometry of the Universe and hence the Hubble constant, typically in a combination with other cosmological parameters. Many, but not all, object-based measurements give $H_0$ values of around 72-74km/s/Mpc , with typical errors of 2-3km/s/Mpc. This is in mild discrepancy with CMB-based measurements, in particular those from the Planck satellite, which give values of 67-68km/s/Mpc and typical errors of 1-2km/s/Mpc. The size of the remaining systematics indicate that accuracy rather than precision is the remaining problem in a good determination of the Hubble constant. Whether a discrepancy exists, and whether new physics is needed to resolve it, depends on details of the systematics of the object-based methods, and also on the assumptions about other cosmological parameters and which datasets are combined in the case of the all-sky methods.Comment: Extensively revised and updated since the 2007 version: accepted by Living Reviews in Relativity as a major (2014) update of LRR 10, 4, 200

Life satisfaction and mortality in elderly people: The Kangwha Cohort Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>As well as biomedical risk factors, psychological factors have been reported to be related to mortality rate. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between life satisfaction and mortality in elderly people through an 11.8-year follow-up study of a prospective cohort.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Among 3,600 participants of the Kangwha Cohort Study who survived in 1994, 1,939 respondents of the Life Satisfaction Index (LSI)-A questionnaire were included (men, 821; women, 1118). The mortality risk for the period up to December 2005 was measured using the Cox Proportional Hazard Model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When the relationship between LSI and mortality was evaluated in men, the unsatisfied group with lower LSI scores showed a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.83) than the satisfied group with higher LSI scores. In women, the unsatisfied group showed a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.18-1.92) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 2.23; 95% CI, 1.30-3.85) than the satisfied group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found that elderly people with a lower LSI score, regardless of gender, were at risk of increased mortality from all causes, and low LSI score was also associated with cardiovascular mortality.</p

Structural Model of the Rev Regulatory Protein from Equine Infectious Anemia Virus

Rev is an essential regulatory protein in the equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) and other lentiviruses, including HIV-1. It binds incompletely spliced viral mRNAs and shuttles them from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, a critical prerequisite for the production of viral structural proteins and genomic RNA. Despite its important role in production of infectious virus, the development of antiviral therapies directed against Rev has been hampered by the lack of an experimentally-determined structure of the full length protein. We have used a combined computational and biochemical approach to generate and evaluate a structural model of the Rev protein. The modeled EIAV Rev (ERev) structure includes a total of 6 helices, four of which form an anti-parallel four-helix bundle. The first helix contains the leucine-rich nuclear export signal (NES). An arginine-rich RNA binding motif, RRDRW, is located in a solvent-exposed loop region. An ERLE motif required for Rev activity is predicted to be buried in the core of modeled structure where it plays an essential role in stabilization of the Rev fold. This structural model is supported by existing genetic and functional data as well as by targeted mutagenesis of residues predicted to be essential for overall structural integrity. Our predicted structure should increase understanding of structure-function relationships in Rev and may provide a basis for the design of new therapies for lentiviral diseases

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure